Official Workbook PDF page source text

LCMS 2026 Convention Workbook: Reports and Overtures, PDF page 194

2026 Convention Workbook
159
OFFICER, BOARD, AND COMMISSION REPORTS9 
circuits that have for other reasons a low ratio of installed pastors to congregations. These results were not 1 
presented in Whitepaper I but became relevant later in the task force’s work. This update will present data 2 
on parish-based formation, which is an idea the task force is recommending as bringing circuit formation 3 
into line with other Pfarrgemeinde-based processes (see 2023 Res. 9- 12 regarding this concept), in which, 4 
from the very early days of the Synod, the sum of congregations served by one pastor received, together, one 5 
pastor and one lay vote (see also Bylaw 2.5.5).6 
Considering electoral circuits formed for the 2026 convention, if seven parishes were to be required, rather 7 
than seven congregations, an additional 6.5% of present circuits would be rendered exceptional (as elsewhere, 8 
these are not evenly distributed, striking districts making more use of multi -congregation parishes and 9 
having fewer very small congregations: 1.1% additional in WSW, 8.3% in GP,  3.0% in CEN, 17.6% in GL, and 10
1.2% in ESE Regions). Reducing the requirement to six parishes from seven congregations renders 1% or fewer 11
more circuits exceptional at present and in the next three triennial projections. This is the recommendation 12
of the task force.13
�able 5: Percent of 2026 con�ention circuits (assuming no realignment or recombination of �isitation circuits� and a 7% triennial 14
drop in con�rmed membership� that �ould re�uire e�ceptions or realignment/combination for the 202 9–2035 conventions15
Parishes 
Confirmed Members Confirmed Members Confirmed Members
800 1000 1200 1500 800 1000 1200 1500 800 1000 1200 1500
4 0.2% 1.0% 3.0% 14.9% 0.4% 1.0% 4.0% 23.9% 0.8% 2.0% 6.6% 32.4%
5 0.2% 1.0% 3.0% 14.9% 0.4% 1.0% 4.0% 23.9% 0.8% 2.0% 6.6% 32.4%
6 1.2% 2.0% 4.0% 15.7% 1.4% 2.0% 5.0% 24.5% 1.8% 3.0% 7.6% 32.8%
7 7.4% 8.2% 10.3% 21.1%9 7.6% 8.2% 11.1% 29.2% 8.0% 9.3% 13.7% 37.0%
��202� pro�� (202� con�ention� ��20�0 pro�� (20�2 con�ention� ��20�� pro�� (20�� con�ention�
Table 5 shows the percent of 2026 convention electoral circuits requiring realignment or recombination for 16
a variety of parish-based requirement models over the next three conventions. As indicated in the leftmost 17
sub-table, if the bylaw is amended to require at least six parishes in an electoral circuit and the current 1,500 18
confirmed members, 15.7% of current circuits are estimated to require adjustment before 2029, with an 19
additional 8.8% requiring attention by 2030 and 8.3% by 2033.20
�able 6� �otential for increase in number of 202� electoral circuits (formed on the assumption of a 7 % triennial membership 21
decline) relative to 2026 actual and proportion of resulting circuits re�uiring e�ceptions for the 20�2 con�ention22
Parishes
Confirmed Members in SY2027 (2029 Conv.) Conf. Mbrs. in SY2030 (2032 Conv.)
800 1000 1200 1500 800 1000 1200 1500
4 81% 62% 46% 24% 23% 25% 35% 41%
5 62% 49% 38% 19% 16% 21% 30% 35%
6 46% 36% 28% 13% 14% 16% 24% 34%
7 30% 24% 18% 7% 9% 13% 20% 28%
Potential increase in convention 2029 voting delegation 
gi�en �arious changes in circuit minimums�
relative to 2026 actual (497 circuits)
�roportion of �optimally formed� circuits
li�ely to fall belo� minimums after another � years
Table 6 shows, similar to Table 4 as based on congregation counts, the potential increase in voting delegation 23
size if a variety of parish-based metrics were to be adopted and if districts were to form optimal circuits based 24
on SY2027 projections for the 2029 convention (a realignment far more extensive than dealing with fraction 25
of circuits that would have become exceptional by that time, left sub -table of Table 5 above). Adopting a 26
standard of 6 parishes and 1,500 members would allow a theoretical ma�imum increase in the 2029 voting 27
convention delegation, relative to 2026, of 13% (17–18% in CEN, GL, and GP regions and 4–6% in WSW and 28
9 These are not evenly distributed: 20.0% of non-geographical circuits, 20.4% of those in the WSW region, and 30.1% of those in the 
ESE region would likely require exceptions to maintain 2026 circuits in 2029, with 6.2 –11.1% requiring them in other regions. If the 
7/1500 requirement is held, in three triennia’s time, 33.0% of circuits would have to be revised, as indicated: 46.7% of non -
geographical circuits, 50.6% of those in ESE, 46.2% of those in WSW, and 19.3–27.5% of those in the other regions.
10
ESE regions due to relatively fewer circuits with large parishes and relatively less importance at present of 1 
the multi-congregation parish model; it must be remembered, of course, that the WSW and ESE regions also 2 
are starting off with a “baseline” exception rate much higher than the other regions. With exceptions 3 
forbidden the model, they are “playing catchup” with regions that have already adjusted to larger circuits 4 
made up of smaller congregations). 5 
7. Codependent Bounds for Electoral Circuit Formation (“Relieved Model” )6 
�he tas� force determined not to pursue this model further� so updated data is not presented here�7 
8. Basic Contextual Data on the Member Congregations and Pastors in the Circuits of the Synod8 
Geographic factors are significant when considering the reasonability of circuit formation. Figure 9 shows, 9 
for 2026 visitation and electoral circuits, the distribution, by district, of electoral circuit radii, expressed in 10
miles10 (these are displayed on a logarithmic scale due to the great variation in the geographic size of 11
electoral circuits). South Wisconsin and Northern Illinois (and the Great Lakes Region, in general) have the 12
most compact visitation circuits, with a median radius below 1 2 miles (mi.). Among geographical districts, 13
Wyoming and Montana have the highest median radii at 70 and 88 mi., respectively (these increase to 13214
and 163 mi. for electoral circuits, when combination is taken into account); Great Plains and West-Southwest 15
regions are similarly challenged with relatively large visitation circuits that tend to combine into 16
significantly larger electoral circuits (WSW has a mean radius of 46 mi. for visitation and 61 mi. for electoral; 17
ESE, 37/45 mi.; GP 34/36 mi.; CEN 27/31 mi.; GL 17/18 mi.; this is, of course, even more the case with the 18
nongeographic districts, at 111/222 mi.). 19
�ee general comments and data (changed but not dramatically since the �rst presentation� and commentary on 20
eligible installed pastors and pastoral full-time e�ui�alents in �hitepaper �� �ection ��21
9. Concluding Thoughts22
This whitepaper updates selected portions of the data presented to the task force in support of its work, 23
focusing especially on changes due to 2025–26 circuit realignments and adding data on parish-based circuit 24
requirements. The changes proposed by the task force will provide, for most circuits, a stable transition 25
between 2026 and 2029 conventions. This document attempts to provide a rough numerical framework for 26
evaluating the task force’s conservative change—which will over time reduce the size of the convention by 27
keeping representational proportions consistent with the post-1969 historical norm—in the context of many 28
10 �ue to issues with projection, the radius of circuits involving �awaii and the Church of All Nations in Hong Kong are inaccurate.
Figure 9: �inimum radius (miles� of 2023 visitation (left� and electoral circuits (right�� by district and region�