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LCMS 2026 Convention Workbook: Reports and Overtures, PDF page 190

2026 Convention Workbook
155
OFFICER, BOARD, AND COMMISSION REPORTS1 
2023 Res. 9-06A Task Force1 
To Evaluate Electoral Circuit Parameters2 
Whitepaper II3 
John W. Sias, Secretary4 
February 13, 2026 5 
This whitepaper provides a supplemental update, subsequent to circuit alignment for the 2026 convention6 
based on Statistical Year (SY) 2024 data, to the statistical and historical data provided in Whitepaper I. Due 7 
to significant realignment in a number of districts, projections based on current state have changed8 
somewhat. A preliminary form of the data presented in this paper was available to the task force as it 9 
assembled its proposal; it is hoped to be useful for the floor committee and convention as they consider the 10
task force proposal and any alternatives.11
1. Electoral and Visitation Circuits Today, Statistically and Historically Considered12
Had no circuits been realigned or recombined from their 2023 configurations,22% of electoral circuits would 13
have required exceptions for the 2026 convention (confirming pre -convention estimates, Whitepaper I, 14
Table 2). Significant realignment, however, by several districts and a disciplined approach, by the Office of 15
the President, to granting exceptions, has resulted in only a 7% exception rate for 2026. This reflects the 16
general impression of the task force that a reduction in convention size is reasonable, and reasonably 17
achievable, within essentially the current framework of requirements.18
The 2026 convention will comprise delegates from 497 electoral circuits, 461 meeting the requirements and19
34 having “underage” exceptions. These 497 electoral circuits represent 5,672 member congregations and 20
1,291,318 confirmed members. Figure 1 updates Whitepaper I, Figure 1, to include also the 2026 convention. 21
The line graphs indicate the number of confirmed members in the Synod divided by 1,500 (the lower bound 22
for electoral circuit formation; for comparison, in 1968, this figure would have been 1,252, slightly below 23
1998’s 1,301) and the number of member congregations divided by 7 (again, the lower bound; for 24
comparison, the 1968 figure was 783).  25
The heights of solid bars inFigure 1(excluding the slashed portion at the top, which reflects visitation circuits 26
“combined away” into others to reach electoral circuit requirements—an increasingly prominent category) 27
represent the number of electoral circuits formed for each convention, the green (lower) bar, those meeting 28
Figure 1: Trends in LCMS Electoral Circuits, 1998–2026 Conventions
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2023 2026
Circuits and Congregations / 7 and Confirmed 
Members / 1500
Regular Except ? Except < M
Except < C Except < C < M
 Combined w/ Adjacent(s)
Congs/7 ConfMbrs/1500
2 
the requirements and the red, yellow, and orange bars representing exceptions granted by the Office of the 1 
President to those that did not.2 
Throughout the period of Figure 1, in comparison to the circumstances of1969, when the present system was 3 
put into use, the Synod has had, on average, fewer and increasingly fewer confirmed members in an 4 
“average” electoral circuit than in 1969; it has also had fewer congregations per electoral circuit, although 5 
this ratio has rebounded, in 2026, to near the 1969 level. In 1969, there were 11.5 member congregations and 6 
3,928 confirmed members, on average, per electoral circuit; in 1998, there were 10 and 3,247; in 2023, 10.9 7 
and 2,622; in 2026, 11.4 and 2,602.18 
Comparing lines to bars in Figure 1, the voting size of the convention 2 has only recently begun to trend 9 
moderately downward in response to slight decline in the number of member congregations (5,672 in 2026 10
vs. 6,033 in 2004) and significant decline in confirmed membership (1.29M in 2026 vs. 1.95M in 1998). There 11
were 497 electoral circuits in 2026 compared to a 2004 high of 628, a decline of 21% in a period that saw a 12
32% decline in confirmed membership and a 6% decline in the number of member congregations. 13
There is a stable, regional non-uniformity. Figure 2 shows, for each region, in 2010 and 2026, the proportion 14
of confirmed members and congregations, plus the number of exceptions , all of which contribute to the 15
number of electoral circuits, and the number of non- SMP parish pastors. Exceptions tend to be granted 16
disproportionately in the ESE and WSW regions, offsetting a relatively lower number of confirmed members 17
in those regions and a commensurate challenge forming compliant electoral circuits—a long-term pattern, 18
as the comparative data from 2010 indicate.3  19
2. Characterization of Current Visitation and Electoral Circuits20
The Office of the President approved 497 electoral circuits for representation at the 2026 convention. Of 21
these, 375 were visitation circuits thatsatisfied the minimum requirements in their own right, 76 were pairs 22
of adjacent visitation circuits (11 of which had more than 20 congregations), and 12 were triples of adjacent 23
visitation circuits ( 8 of which had more than 20 congregations) . 34 (7 %) were under requirements and 24
received exceptions: 3, having fewer than 7 congregations; 31, having fewer than 1,500 members (4 of which 25
were pairs of adjacent visitation circuits); and none, having both fewer than 7 congregations and fewer than 26
1 Such averages are useful for general comparison over time of representation rates but obscure wide variance among actual circuits.
2 See details in Whitepaper I, note 2.
3 In 2026, many fewer exceptions were requested and granted inCEN, GL, and GP regions; the 2023 distribution of exceptions granted 
was very similar to that for 2010. 
Figure 2: Proportion of Electoral and Visitation Circuits, Congregations, Confirmed Members, Non-SMP Pastors, and 
Exceptions per Region, 2010 and 2026
R59.2