Official Workbook PDF page source text

LCMS 2026 Convention Workbook: Reports and Overtures, PDF page 184

2026 Convention Workbook
149
OFFICER, BOARD, AND COMMISSION REPORTS5 
number of exceptions that would be required in the next two conventions, it is clear that “doing nothing” is 1 
not a realistic option.112 
Figure 4 adds another dimension of the 2023 convention circuit apportionment, indicating on the vertical 3 
axis the number of congregations involved in each electoral circuit as well as (by the color of the dot) the 4 
number of visitation circuits included in each combined electoral circuit. Confirmed member thresholds 5 
are indicated as in Figure 3. The figure also distinguishes by color those electoral circuits formed of two or 6 
three adjacent visitation circuits. Evident from the figure are the following:7 
• Exceptions based on confirmed membership are today numerous in the WSW and ESE re gions; 8 
many electoral circuits in all regions, however, are likely within one or two conventions of falling, all 9 
things being equal, below that bar. With the greatest concentration of “optimized” circuits near 10
1,500 confirmed members and also the greatest historic confirmed member loss rates, the WSW and 11
ESE regions will continue to prove challenging for continuing apportionment of electoral circuits at 12
near-present levels.13
• A great number of circuits are also right at the minimum of 7 congregations, across all regions, and 14
are within one closure or merger of falling below that requirement (future closures are not modeled). 15
• There are presently many adjacent visitation circuits combined for purposes of representation in the 16
ESE and WSW regions and nongeographic districts (orange and red dots), but fewer elsewhere. 17
• In the WSW region, many of these combined circuits nonetheless require, or likely soon will, 18
exceptions for confirmed membership. A number of combined circuits, largely in the WSW, ESE, and 19
GP regions, have more than 20 congregations; as further combinations occur, perhaps to triple -20
circuit combinations rather than double, this can be expected to increase, perhaps markedly . This 21
may have a negative impact on the many far -flung congregations meeting together to determine 22
their representationor discuss. Electronic meeting is possible but has its own significant challenges. 23
11 Of course, one realistic option for “doing something” may be leaving requirements as they are, requiring districts to realign circuits
o n  t h e  u n d e r s t a n d i n g  t h a t  t h e  O f fi c e  o f  t h e  P r e s i d e n t  w i l l  l i k e l y  control the number of exceptions granted to a reasonable and 
customary level around 10%. It is important to note that any change recommended by the task force would impact, at the earliest, 
the 2029 convention.
Figure 4: Confirmed Membershipand Congregations of 2023 Electoral Circuits by Region (SY2021 data; confirmed 
membership thresholds at 1,500, 1,630, and 1,792; see explanation of Figure 3 in text), Indicating Combined Circuits  
6 
• A number of circuits with very large congregations have been granted exceptions on the number of 1 
congregations required, along with some more moderately -sized circuits (these fall below the 2 
horizontal red bar). 3 
3. Characterization of Confirmed Membership Change4 
The rate of confirmed membership change over time is a factor in the “stability” of circuit designations, 5 
electoral circuit combinations, and the rate of requests for exceptions. Electoral circuit qualification is based 6 
on the statistics gathered in the year prior to the convention (i.e., the 2023 convention relied on SY2021 7 
confirmed membership data as of December 31, 2021, gathered by roughly June 2022; the 2026 convention 8 
will rely on SY2024 data). District alignment of visitation regions, usually done at district conventions in the 9 
year prior to the Synod convention, generally relies on the previous statistical year (SY), so districts have to 10
predict circuits likely to drop below requirements in the intervening year of data reporting.11
Through the period 1994 –2022, t he confirmed membership of the Synod has been decreasing at an 12
accelerating rate, with some regional variation. Figure 5 shows the triennial rate of confirmed membership 13
change throughout the period for each district and region (these data are presented to show the trendusing 14
LOESS, or “locally-weighted scatterplot smoothing”). The confirmed membership of the Synod as a whole 15
was experiencing 2% triennial loss in 200 3, 4% in 201 1, 6% in 201 6, and approaching 8% in 2023. In 2022, 16
the WSW Region was experiencing 9.5% triennial loss (with CNH and NOW districts reporting experiencing17
12–13% reported triennial losses, despite having some of the greatest reporting lags in the Synod, which may 18
mean the actual reportable losses at present may be significantly higher). ESE, CEN, and GL regions are near 19
the Synod average, while the GP Region and non-geographic districts are experiencing 5–6% triennial losses.20
This means an electoral circuit of 1,630 confirmed members at the time of one convention’s electoral circuit 21
qualification will likely have, allother things being equal, 1,500 for the next, and 1,380 for the one thereafter.22
(In the WSW region, again, all other things being equal, a circuit would need 1,657 members at one 23
convention to have 1,500 for the next;and in the GP Region, 1,590.) 24
Of course, these changes are not uniform within a given district. Figure 6 shows the distribution (in box-plot 25
form, with the colored portion of the box reflecting the two inner quartiles, or half the circuits) of recent rates 26
of confirmed membership change across the districts—a reminder that “all other things” are rarely equal.A 27
considerable number of circuits reported confirmed membership losses, over the past three years, of more 28
Figure 5: Triennial Rate of Reported Confirmed Member Gain / Loss by District / Region, 1994–2022